The secret to the US economy's success: hardworking immigrants.

New immigrants have taken millions of US jobs, yet the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes have not produced a recession.

Luisana Silva, who fled Venezuela’s economic and political upheaval, loads carpets in South Carolina. Rent, food, transportation, and money for her parents are covered by her income.

The journey to the US was difficult. Silva, 25, her husband, and her 7-year-old daughter risked Panama’s Darien forests, Mexico, the Rio Grande River, and Brownsville, Texas, to surrender to the Border Patrol. They got a work permit last year after applying for asylum and found jobs in Rock Hill, South Carolina.

Silva stated he wanted to help his family progress economically and help them with money.

Their story goes beyond a family’s struggle for a better existence. Silva and other newly arrived immigrants have been filling millions of jobs in the US, which may explain how the economy has grown, adding hundreds of thousands of jobs each month, while the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation, which usually leads to recessions.

The answer is increasingly immigration, whether legally or not in the US. After US labor shortages left many enterprises idle, foreign-born adults considerably expanded the availability of workers.

More workers earning more and spending more has boosted economic growth and employment creation. Immigrant laborers alleviated pressure on corporations, who had to substantially raise wages and pass on their higher labor expenses to customers, causing inflation. Although price increases are considerable, they are much lower than two years ago.

“It’s been kind of a mystery: How do we continue to achieve such extraordinary and strong job growth while inflation continues to decline?” Heidi Shierholz, Economic Policy Institute president and former Labor Department chief economist, said. The fact that immigration numbers are higher than expected solves a lot of the puzzle.”

Why the immigration boom surprised
Immigrants fuel economic growth but also spark a contentious election-year debate over the southern border.

Donald Trump has called migrants dangerous criminals who are “poisoning the blood” of the US in his effort to return to the White House, often referencing falsehoods.

Trump plans to finish the border wall and start the “largest internal deportation operation in American history.” Whether he or President Joe Biden wins the election might determine whether immigrants and their economic boost continue.

Rump labels immigrants “animals” and “murderers” again.

Most people were surprised by the immigration boom. Congressional Budget Office forecast net immigration (arrivals minus emigration) at 1 million in 2023 in 2019. The CBO reported 3.3 million in January, more than quadruple that.

The immigrants were sorely required by thousands of employers. The economy and consumer spending recovered well from the pandemic recession. Companies had trouble hiring enough staff to fulfill requests.

Demographic developments exacerbated the issue: Native-born Americans in their prime working years (25–54) were declining and reaching retirement. This group has lost 770,000 members since February 2020, before Covid-19 impacted the economy.

A surge of immigrants filled the vacancy. In the past four years, 2.8 million prime-age people have found work or are looking for work. Most of those new workers (96%) were foreign-born. According to Economic Policy Institute study of government data, immigrants made up a record 18.6% of the working-age population last year.

Employers appreciated the help.

Immigrants Consider Jobs Americans Don’t Take. Orlando-based Interessant Hotels & Resort Management CEO Jan Gautam said he can’t find American-born cleaners and laundresses for his 44 hotels. She added 85% of Interestsant’s 3,500 employees are immigrants.

“Without employees, you’re broke,” said Gautam, an Indian immigrant who started his own business as a dishwasher. “If you want to boost the economy,” stated, “you definitely need more immigrants to come to this country.”

Try Flood Brothers Farm in Clinton, Maine’s ‘dairy capital’. Foreigners make up half of its nearly 50 employees.

For every unemployed Mainean, two job vacancies exist on average.

“We wouldn’t have an economy, either in Maine or in the United States, if we didn’t have highly skilled labor coming from outside this country,” Tilton-Flood told The Associated Press from her farm.

“Without immigrants, both new asylum seekers and our long-term immigrant taxpayers, we would not be able to do the work we do,” stated. “Everything about the American economy is driven by immigrant labor and can only be saved by it,” he said.

How immigrants grew the economy without inflation
Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson, economists at the Hamilton Project at Brookings Institution, concluded that new immigrants have expanded the economy’s worker supply and allowed the US to create employment without overheating or rising inflation over the past two years.

Economists previously believed that American firms could only add 60,000 to 100,000 jobs a month without overheating and inflating. Edelberg and Watson estimated that monthly job growth might treble this year (from 160,000 to 200,000) without raising costs by include immigration.

“There are a lot more people working in the country,” Powell said at Stanford last week. Powell said immigrants drove the economy’s growth, “It’s bigger but not tighter. It’s strange and surprising.”

Trump has consistently criticized Biden’s immigration plan. Edelberg and Watson found that 27% of the 3.3 million foreigners who entered the US last year were “lawful permanent residents” or on temporary visas. The other (2.4 million) entered without work permits, lingered after their visas expired, are awaiting immigration court processes, or are on ‘humanitarian parole’ to stay and work.

“There you have it,” wrote Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former CBO director and conservative American Action Forum president, in February. “The way to solve an inflation crisis is to endure an immigration crisis.”

The US economy gains from immigration
Many analysts believe immigrants boost the U.S. economy. They do low-paying, unpleasant, but necessary professions like caring for children, the sick, and the elderly that most Americans shun. They’re more likely to establish enterprises and get patents, which boosts innovation and productivity.

Over the past four years, immigration has contributed nearly a fifth of the economy’s growth, according to Georgetown University’s Psaros Center visiting professor Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden economic adviser.

Critics argue that immigration lowers wages, especially for low-wage workers like long-term Americans.

Last month, Biden’s aides recognized in an economic analysis that “immigration can put downward pressure on wages in lower-paying sectors,” but most studies demonstrate that it has little effect on US-born salaries.

Edelberg notes that a sudden influx of immigrants like the recent one can strain state and local governments. A more organized immigration system would assist, he said.

The recent uptick “is a somewhat disturbing way to increase immigration into the United States,” Edelberg said. “I don’t think anyone would have sat down and said, ‘Let’s create an optimal immigration policy,’ and this is what they would come up with.”

If elected, Trump’s immigration decrease will limit labor force growth and return to the strong balance between inflation and growth, Holtz-Eakin said. economic that the US has avoided.

For now, immigrants like Mariel Marrero fill millions of jobs. Marrero, 32, a political opponent of Venezuela’s dictatorial President Nicolás Maduro, escaped in 2016 after death threats. Before seeking asylum in the US, she lived in Panama and El Salvador.

He was allowed to work in the US last July while his case was pending. Marrero sold phones and worked as a cashier in a Venezuelan immigrant-owned convenience shop after working in the Venezuelan Congress archives in Caracas.

I was initially housed for free by an uncle. However, she now earns enough to rent a two-bedroom house in Doral, Florida, a Miami suburb with a big Venezuelan community, with three other Venezuelans. After rent, food, power, and gas, she can send her Venezuelan family $200 a month.

“One hundred percent: this country gives you opportunities,” remarked. Marrero said, “I imagine having my own company, my house, helping my family in a more comfortable way.”

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