Thu. Dec 26th, 2024

China’s turn on the Ukraine war

News

The US recently deployed North Korean troops to Russia. Possible Ukrainian intervention that would raise concerns

The rapprochement between North Korea and Russia opened a new, more intriguing chapter last week. Many sources reported sending troops and weapons to the Russian front in Ukraine. The US has officially declared Pyongyang’s entry into the European war. Thousands of soldiers are mentioned, but the most important question is: why?

The news. The US confirmed that North Korea has sent troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine, marking a turning point in the conflict and a major shift in Moscow’s strategy.

Lloyd J. Austin III, the US Defense Secretary, confirmed the troop deployment first. Austin called the presence uncertain but a “very serious” escalation, suggesting the situation is worse than thought, and that it shows “the desperation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, said North Korean troops arrived on ships from Wonsan and were transferred to three Russian Far East training sites.

3,000 North Koreans. According to U.S. intelligence, 3,000 North Korean troops arrived in Russia in October, with more than 12,000 in training.

South Korea reported last week that 1,500 North Korean soldiers, including special forces, were training in Russia. Ukrainian intelligence also reported a small North Korean contingent working with Russian forces in engineering and logistics.

Why? It’s not as obvious as it seems. North Korea has not confirmed their deployment to Ukraine. We have reported that Pyongyang has sold more than a million artillery pieces to Russia as cooperation between the two countries has grown. The US worries they may be sent to the Russian Western Front after Vladivostok training.

What does Korea want? North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may seek advanced military technology, particularly intercontinental missiles and nuclear submarines, in exchange, according to experts.

Global implications: Russia and North Korea’s collaboration is undoubtedly worrisome in Asia and the West, especially because it could boost North Korea’s ballistic capability and threaten the global military balance.

Beyond that. North Korean troops violating UN Security Council resolutions could have diplomatic repercussions.

The Chinese crossroads. Finally, China, a key North Korean ally, may not like these moves. The reason? The North Korean move is testing the two nations’ historic relationship. The 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations seems distant today because China has sought to mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict peacefully.

Despite its alliance with Russia, China has taken a cautious approach, emphasizing the need to defuse the conflict. Since North Korean soldiers are fighting on the Russian side, Beijing’s narrative as a global peacemaker is strained.

Plus: While this is a more complicated argument, analysts also worry that military collaboration between Russia and North Korea, including technology sharing, could encourage Pyongyang to become more aggressive in Asia, particularly toward South Korea and Japan.

If this happened, it could reduce China’s control over its unpredictable neighbor and strengthen the anti-Chinese front, consolidated by the recent US-Japan-South Korea alliance, which Beijing sees as a “Asian NATO.”

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