How a few kilometers prevented Russia's missile

For several hours, missile specifications could have changed the Ukraine conflict.

Last Thursday morning in Europe. The world waited hours for Putin to “press” the button. Russia allegedly fired an ICBM at Dnipro, according to the Ukrainian air force. The final warning was a “experimental missile.” It was also a message to the West with a new, long-range weapon.

The Russian warning. Hours after the launch, President Vladimir Putin announced that it was the “Oreshnik,” an experimental missile with a Mach 10 non-nuclear hypersonic warhead. In its first combat use, the missile hit a military-industrial site in Dnipro, Ukraine, as a test and warning to the West.

After that, analysts and experts provided more context and identified the missile. The attacker used an RS-26 Rubezh or similar device. The Pentagon claims the design was revived after being discontinued in 2018. The attack was the first use of a ballistic missile in combat, albeit an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a conventional nuclear payload.

Missile traits. Thus, the Oreshnik (or modified RS-26) is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), though some analysts consider it close to an intercontinental missile. Experts say the weapon can carry conventional or nuclear payloads and a MIRV system with multiple warheads. Its 5,500-kilometer range exceeds the missiles used in the Ukraine war.

In 2008, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology developed the mobile, intermediate-range, solid-fuel RS-26 ballistic missile. It is about 12 meters long and 1.8 meters wide, derived from the RS-24 Yars. Intercontinental ranges were achieved in tests with light payloads, limiting it to intermediate ranges with nuclear or conventional warheads.

A launch. The Ukraine attack was launched from Kapustin Yar, 800 km away. Images of the impact suggest multiple independently re-entrant warheads (MIRVs) with small explosives, decoys, or non-lethal payloads.

As mentioned, such an attack could be an experimental test and strategic deterrence against NATO. Russia’s use of a conventional IRBM shows its ability to evade Ukrainian air defenses and sends a message of strength to the West.

The crucial km. The Kremlin has suggested the RS-26 is an ICBM. In other words, a missile that could reach targets beyond 5,500 km. So? A major issue would explain the discrepancy. It is well known that Russia has tried to comply with the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which banned ICBM and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km. Conclusion: European tensions reduction.

What happened? Russia halted RS-26 development in 2018 to avoid violating the INF. The treaty was canceled in 2019, possibly causing further developments. According to analysts, the Ukrainian army initially called the Dnipro missile an ICBM. Those “extra” kilometres and the consensus that we were dealing with an IRBM kept the conflict from changing as the hours passed.

Strategic implications and RS-26 future. This revival of the RS-26 shows a trend toward non-nuclear strategic weapons that can send power signals without escalating nuclear tensions. The attack risks misinterpretation by Ukraine or NATO because these missiles can carry nuclear warheads.

More evidence is needed to determine if the Oreshnik is a direct revival of the RS-26 or a new development inspired by it. Strategic missiles to exert political and military pressure have complicated the Ukraine war and global deterrence.

How a few kilometers prevented Russia’s missile

By nr39r

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How a few kilometers prevented Russia’s missile

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